A mid-year read on U.S. CRE momentum, and the hiring signals that matter for H2 2026.
U.S. commercial real estate investment volume rose 21% year over year in the first half of 2026, reaching $250.3 billion. Over the same broader period, the average pace of monthly job creation fell from 122,000 per month in 2024 to 9,700 per month in 2025, a decline of roughly 92%. Those two facts describe the same market. Capital is returning, and CRE hiring is returning with it, but both are moving selectively rather than broadly.
The SelectLeaders Mid-Year 2026 CRE Market Intelligence report pairs third-party capital markets and sector data with demand data from the SelectLeaders platform to show where the recovery is real, where it is uneven, and what it means for teams building headcount in the back half of the year.
Capital markets are back, and the return driver has changed
H1 2026 investment volume of $250.3 billion represented a 21% year over year increase. Private investors led Q2 activity, and inbound cross-border investment rose 35% in H1. CBRE projects approximately $605 billion in full-year 2026 investment, a 16% increase.
The composition of returns matters as much as the volume. With rates still elevated, income growth is doing more of the work than cap rate compression, and CBRE expects cap rates to remain broadly stable through year-end. That has a direct staffing consequence: more value is being created through operations than through repricing.
Five asset classes, five different stories
The recovery is real, but highly uneven. The clean read by sector:
- Multifamily. Vacancy at 4.3%. Q2 net absorption reached 167,000 units and exceeded completions for a second consecutive quarter. All 69 tracked markets posted positive absorption.
- Industrial. Leasing up 11% year over year. Q2 leasing reached 268.7 million sq. ft., vacancy fell to 6.5%, and quarterly completions dropped to their lowest level since 2016.
- Retail. Average asking rent up 2.4% year over year to $24.79 per sq. ft. in Q2. Availability held at 4.9% as limited new supply supported fundamentals.
- Office. Q2 net absorption of 12.6 million sq. ft., nearly double the prior quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of positive demand. National vacancy fell to 18.3%, and prime vacancy fell to 12.3%.
- Data centers. Leasing is tracking toward an all-time high. The binding constraint is power and grid access, not demand.
The labor-market paradox
The 92% drop in monthly hiring pace between the 2024 and 2025 averages did not erase CRE demand. It concentrated it. Fewer, more deliberate hires raise the cost of a miss, and they shorten the window to land a standout candidate before a competitor does.
Where platform demand is actually growing
SelectLeaders platform hiring demand rose 24% over the latest six-week period. The mix is the more useful signal:
| Segment Change in Demand | |
| Property management | +75% |
| Office asset class | +64% |
| Asset management | +60% |
| Capital markets | +15% |
| Acquisitions | -32% |
| Overall demand | +24% |
Operations functions are growing fastest, which is consistent with owners focused on occupancy, NOI and active portfolio stewardship rather than transaction throughput.
The acquisitions contradiction
Acquisitions postings are down 32%, yet acquisitions professionals are the largest actively searching candidate segment on SelectLeaders. With investment volume rising and a stronger full year forecast, that gap reads as a pipeline window rather than a dead market. Employers who map that talent now will not be bidding for it at a premium when deal volume turns into urgent hiring.
Three signals to watch in H2
- Acquisitions. Build the bench before transaction volume becomes a hiring sprint.
- Data centers. Power access is the bottleneck. Development, project and asset talent will follow cleared projects.
- Office recovery. Vacancy is falling and absorption is rising, but top-quality space continues to lead.
What this means for employers
Pipeline early. Map talent before a role becomes urgent. Hire for leverage. Blend CRE judgment with AI and analytical fluency. Protect the bench. Do not let today's junior slowdown become tomorrow's leadership gap.
CRE is not moving in one direction. Capital is returning selectively, and hiring is doing the same. The advantage goes to the teams that read the pockets of strength early and build the right team before the market makes it obvious.
