Every year for the first column after Labor Day I wish all of our readers a very happy New Year. Today begins a sprint to the end of the calendar year and the race to next summer, so in many respects it is a business year cycle.
This year the headline is Recession. After almost a ten-year run, everyone is speculating about when the economy will dip into recession, yet most pundits are having a hard time pinning down the real and tangible evidence for a recession with strong employment, continued good news on the corporate earnings front, low interest rates (actually very low), and balance sheets in check.
Of course we have uncontrolled daily tweets out of Washington, a dicey geo-political situation, especially on the China and North Korea front, and turmoil in the UK and Europe. So as we begin the New Year my suggestion is to keep our heads down, disregard all of the static, put numbers up on the board, and hope that the unknown trigger that will actually usher in a recession is still down the road some.